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Featured ACM Insight and Updates
– Dr. Alan Greenspan: Stimulus Spending, Inflation, and the Recovery
Fourteen months after the country shut down in response to COVID-19, America seems to be turning the corner. Real gross domestic product will likely surpass its pre-pandemic level by the middle of this year and new jobless claims continue to fall steadily. Nearly 50% of the total population have received at least their first vaccine dose and the Pfizer vaccine has just received
FDA authorization for use in children as young as 12. As the country continues to reopen, market participants have begun to consider the possible aftereffects of the unprecedented levels of monetary and fiscal stimulus that resulted in what may ultimately be recorded as the shortest recession in U.S. history. Their primary concern: inflation.
As reported in the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Financial Stability report published this month, in a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York,
the third most frequently cited potential shock over the next 12 to 18 months was a surge in inflation (following vaccine-resistant covid variants and a sharp
rise in real interest rates).
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