• Powell Deep Sixed “Transitory”

    By Chuck Lieberman, CIO and Co-Founder That was the strongest “weak” jobs report I’ve ever seen. While payroll jobs increased by “only” 210,000, far less than the 500,00 plus expected, the household survey reported job gains above 1.1 million, while the unemployment rate plunged, despite a surge in labor force participation. The economy is running…

  • Living In Interesting Times: Omicron Edition

    By Randall Coleman, Portfolio Manager May you live in interesting times. Is that a blessing, or a curse? The day after Thanksgiving is notoriously boring in the stock market. It is a short, early close day, and typically volume is very light. Usually, nothing interesting happens. Since 1928, two-thirds of the 93 Black Fridays saw…

  • It Has Been a Tough 2021 for Emerging Market Equities

    By David Ruff, Portfolio ManagerDozens of central bank tightening moves across EM countries designed to curb inflationary pressures and stabilize currencies combined with lower anticipated US monetary accommodation created a difficult environment for most EM businesses. Additionally, much of the world’s economy depends on the China economic growth engine, and with this machine sputtering as…

  • Ask Me Anything – The Alan Greenspan Edition

    1. With companies like Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin and Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic taking tourists to space, do you think the future of humanity is on Earth? And would you go to space? As awe-inspiring as space travel and the recent development of space tourism may be, I view Jeff Bezos and Richard Branson taking…

  • Wishful Thinking

    By Chuck Lieberman The economic recovery marches on, although the pace is accelerating once again after the Delta variant recedes from its summer spike. With Covid cases receding, the recovery is back in full bore mode. Hopes had been high that some of the bottlenecks might improve—specifically that labor force participation might increase–ameliorating the upward…

  • The Q4 Market Historically Performs…

    By Paul Broughton, Portfolio Manager We finally got a 5% drawdown in the S&P 500 for the first time since October of 2020. From Sept 2nd through Oct 4th, the broad equity market, as reflected in the S&P 500, dropped -5.1%. The month-long decline helped to reset and temper expectations and should be viewed as…

  • Alan Greenspan’s Thoughts on Inflation

    By Dr. Alan Greenspan, Senior Economic Advisor Recently, there has been renewed concern regarding rising inflation, driven most significantly by increases in prices for various consumer goods. Consequently, U.S. inflation expectations have surged to their highest level since 2013. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s September Survey of Consumer Expectations, the median…

  • Are You Chasing Yield in Fixed Income?

    By Kevin Kelly, Portfolio Manager Given low Investment Grade yields, inflation concerns, and investors’ need (or desire) to stay invested, many fixed investors have found themselves chasing higher yield. Too often, most investors do not know when to stop chasing yield and either to accept a lower, safer yield or switch into other asset classes…

  • The Reality that Lurks Beneath the Surface

    By Dr. Charles Lieberman The September jobs report disappointed with a mere 194,000 new payroll jobs, a totally misleading sense of how the labor market is performing. Everything else in the report was consistent with the ongoing solid recovery of the labor market. So, we expect the Federal Reserve to announce the start of its…