• Is your Fixed Income likely to stress or disappoint you?

    By Kevin Kelly, Portfolio ManagerIf analyzed carefully, I believe most fixed investors would not be happy with the current risk versus reward trade-offs they are consciously or unconsciously accepting. Many investors have resorted to one of the following three options in this low yield environment: 1) to essentially avoid interest rate and credit spread (risk…

  • Roaring Ahead, While the Fed Lags Behind

    By Dr. Chuck Lieberman, Co-founder and CIO Economic growth is very strong, profits significantly outperformed optimistic expectations and hiring is robust, even as bottlenecks and labor scarcity hamper the pace of recovery. The rally in the bond market turned on a dime. Most Fed officials still seem to prefer maintaining the current highly accommodative policy…

  • Chinese Stocks Rocked

    By Randall Coleman, Portfolio Manager US traded China ADRs were dealt a severe blow last week by regulators on both sides of the Pacific, causing a dramatic and uneven loss of value in China-based stocks. The brunt of the damage came from the for-profit education industry in China, where regulators have mandated companies move to…

  • Q2 GDP: Quick Thoughts

    By Dr. Chuck Lieberman, Co-founder and CIO This morning’s Q2 GDP came in at 6.5%, well below the 8% or higher that was expected. But digging into the details shows strong underlying demand and sets the stage for ongoing solid growth. 1. Consumption +11.8%. Services rose 12.0%, a sharp rise from Q1. 2. Nonresidential capital…

  • Productivity a Silver Lining

    By Dr. Alan Greenspan, Senior Economic Advisor With a majority of the work force now vaccinated, and vaccines readily available to those who are not, large corporations across the U.S. have decided that the time to return to the office has come. From banks to technology companies, there seems to be a consensus forming that…

  • Next Up: Earnings

    Although the news recently has been dominated by alarming headlines about inflation, the Delta variant, and high stock valuations, we have some positive developments to look forward to: second quarter earnings reports. This past quarter will likely deliver one of best year-over-year earnings growth rates in history—the other having occurred in the wake of the…

  • The EU – Driving Europe’s Revival

    Last July, we wrote a commentary titled “Europe – Always the Also-Ran?” where we highlighted the poor short and long-term equity performance of the European continent relative to the other global superpowers of the US and China. Despite the region being an economic behemoth, only behind the US in GDP, and the use of the…

  • The Real Test Is Still to Come

    School’s out for the summer, but the Fed’s policy stance is already being tested. Job growth has picked up sharply and should remain fairly strong even before schools resume in September. But rising labor costs and their effects on inflation will test the Fed’s view that the surge in inflation will be just transitory. Much…

  • The Full Re-Opening Hasn’t Happened Yet

    At the start of the 2nd quarter, the economic re-opening trade was on full-force with the 10yr Treasury at 1.74% and rising fairly fast due to massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and on course to take out the low 1.90’s range, its pre-Covid level. Almost three months later and the 10yr is at…