• Productivity a Silver Lining

    By Dr. Alan Greenspan, Senior Economic Advisor With a majority of the work force now vaccinated, and vaccines readily available to those who are not, large corporations across the U.S. have decided that the time to return to the office has come. From banks to technology companies, there seems to be a consensus forming that…

  • Next Up: Earnings

    Although the news recently has been dominated by alarming headlines about inflation, the Delta variant, and high stock valuations, we have some positive developments to look forward to: second quarter earnings reports. This past quarter will likely deliver one of best year-over-year earnings growth rates in history—the other having occurred in the wake of the…

  • The EU – Driving Europe’s Revival

    Last July, we wrote a commentary titled “Europe – Always the Also-Ran?” where we highlighted the poor short and long-term equity performance of the European continent relative to the other global superpowers of the US and China. Despite the region being an economic behemoth, only behind the US in GDP, and the use of the…

  • The Real Test Is Still to Come

    School’s out for the summer, but the Fed’s policy stance is already being tested. Job growth has picked up sharply and should remain fairly strong even before schools resume in September. But rising labor costs and their effects on inflation will test the Fed’s view that the surge in inflation will be just transitory. Much…

  • The Full Re-Opening Hasn’t Happened Yet

    At the start of the 2nd quarter, the economic re-opening trade was on full-force with the 10yr Treasury at 1.74% and rising fairly fast due to massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus and on course to take out the low 1.90’s range, its pre-Covid level. Almost three months later and the 10yr is at…

  • Are You Chasing Yield in Fixed Income?

    Interest rates and risk premiums (credit spreads) are both very low. This has caused some investors to chase yield via more aggressive fixed income opportunities without appreciating the incremental risk associated with those decisions. To increase yield, investors must increase interest rate exposure (duration) and/or increase the amount of credit risk they are taking. The…

  • Futures Point to Lower Open on Fed’s Interest Rate Decision

    Futures were pointing to a lower open this morning as investors await weekly jobless claims and continue to digest news that the Federal Reserve is moving up its timeline for interest rate hikes. Chuck Lieberman, Partner and CIO at Advisors Capital Management, joined Wake Up with Cheddar for more. Click here to watch on Cheddar.

  • Competition with China

    As we enter what may be remembered as our first post-COVID summer in the United States, the domestic landscape seems to be settling into a far less chaotic rhythm. Encouraging vaccination numbers have seen mask mandates disappearing. Businesses that were concerned with simply being open only a year ago are now turning toward increasing capacity…

  • There Are No Workers

    Job growth picked up by 559,000 in May, notably stronger than the solid, yet disappointing, 278,000 increase in headcount estimate for April, but the real story is that the strong recovery in demand is being held back by supply constraints, especially in the labor market. So, the market remains concerned that inflation might increase on…